Thursday, March 23, 2017

Make in India to remove the energy constraint on India’s development


To increase our level of development, India needs to increase its level energy use per capita. This requires a massive increase in energy supply. The energy constraint is about how to increase energy supply without causing environmental pollution and global warming.

How much energy do we need?

As per the IEA (http://www.iea.org/statistics/), the annual per-capita energy consumption for India and the USA is as follows:
Energy Consumption, Annual (IEA, 2014)
India
USA
Total Energy Consumption, MWh/capita
7.4
80.7
Electric Energy Consumption, MWh/capita
0.8
13.0

Electric energy is only 11% of the Indian consumption. What constitutes the rest of it?
  1. Petroleum products (such as diesel, petrol, etc.) and natural gas
  2. Wood, dung-cake, and agricultural waste used for fuel
  3. Coal and lignite
We should set our development target in 2030 to be at the level of USA today. For this, we will need to scale up energy by 11 times. With the momentum we'll gain, we can build up from there. These are the proposed energy targets for India:
Energy Metric
2017
2030
2050
Total
Population (billions)
1.3
1.5
1.9
Total Energy, TWh
9,676
 121,068
 306,706
Oil & Gas, TWh
3,193
No fossil fuel
No fossil fuel
Electric Power, TWh
1,040
 118,068
 303,706
Coal and Lignite, TWh
2,443
No fossil fuel
No fossil fuel
Bio-waste, TWh
3,000
3,000 biofuel
3,000 biofuel
Per capita
Total Energy, MWh
7.4
80.7
161.4
Oil & Gas, MWh
2.5
 -
 -
Bio-waste, MWh
2.3
2.0
1.6

We must also have these constraints on our energy supply plan:
  1. Phase out fossil fuels (petroleum, natural gas, coal, and lignite) to avoid pollution
  2. Produce carbon-neutral biofuels to replace the diesel, petrol, kerosene, ATF, CNG, LPG, etc. Bio-wastes (wood, dung-cake, and agricultural waste) are renewable and carbon-rich, and serve as the feedstock for biofuels. To avoid ecological disaster, we must keep the biofuels at current level of 3,000 TWh/year.
  3. Use non-polluting energy sources (wind, solar, and nuclear) to fill the gap.
To meet this plan, we need to produce 121,068 TWh of energy by 2030, of which only 3,000 TWh is from bio-waste. Electric power generation must increase from 1,040 to 118,068 TWh, which is 114 times the current level.

Energy Metric
2017
2030
2050
Total
Total Energy, TWh
        9,676
   121,068
   306,706
Electric Power, TWh
        1,040
   118,068
   303,706
Bio-waste, TWh
        3,000
        3,000
        3,000
Growth
Electric Power
Baseline
           114
           292
Bio-waste
Baseline
                1
                1

This kind of 100x catch-up has happened earlier: our tele-density shot up from 5 million in 1991 to 700 million in 2012 and over 1 billion in 2016.

How much generating capacity will we need? At 90% plant load factor, we need 15,000 GW. How can we build it? Ref http://powermin.nic.in/en/content/power-sector-glance-all-india, we have 315 GW of generating capacity at present, with 43% of it in the private sector. We have a better base to scale up private sector in energy than we had for the telecom sector.

Installed Capacity
2017
2030
State Sector, GW
103
103
Central Sector, GW
77
77
Private Sector, GW
135
15,000
Total, GW
315
15,180


To ramp up electric power generation to 15,000 GW, these are the methods:
  1. Solar: India’s solar potential is estimated at 750 GW
  2. Wind: India’s potential could be higher than 1,000 GW
  3. Nuclear: power can supply the balance of 13,250 GW.
The targets we currently pursue are sadly unambitious, even in the long-term. Ref http://niti.gov.in/writereaddata/files/document_publication/Energy_Efficiency.pdf, our NITI Aayog planners report only 762 TWh of energy use (probably just the electric power generated by State & Central plants), as against the 9,676 TWh estimated by the IEA. Then they intend to scale it to just 2,239 TWh in 2030, which is only 1.5 MWh/capita as compared to 7.4 MWh/capita of total energy consumption today and a developmental need for 11 times more than that. This plan will keep us firmly in the undeveloped and energy-poor category even in 2047.

The same lack of imagination and planning is what we see when we bemoan the bankrupt and money-losing Discoms. When we plan for 100x growth, these will become a remnant of a past era like the BSNL of telecom, instead of a dead weight crushing all attempts at scaling. 

Make in India
 
We need to set ourselves the challenge of establishing a power-plant industry that would power India up to any desired standard. The industry size will be huge: at $1.5 million per MW, it will be US$22.5 trillion of capex for 15,000 GW. We can afford it in the same way as we afforded the mobile telecom investments: funded by the people who pay for improved infrastructure because they see it improving their own lives and productivity.

We can make it transformative by “Make in India”, to create the manufacturing entities that will build the power plants for use in India and abroad. China already dominates the solar photovoltaic supply chain. The wind turbine space is hotly contested, but not by Indian companies. Scalable biofuel and nuclear plant technology is in startup stage, and can be a “Make in India” success story if we choose.

What will it take?
  1. Incubate and pilot world-class biofuel and nuclear plant technology in India
  2. Deploy and use the technology in India, with facilitative regulatory approach
  3. Build a track record of cheap and safe operations that will enable scaling globally.
What do you think? Please leave a comment.

46 comments:

  1. http://www.theenergycollective.com/roberthargraves/2400772/clean-doable-liquid-fission-lf-energy-roadmap-
powering-world

    Capital costs of $1.2B per GW of generating capacity, producing electricity that should cost 3 cents/kWh or less.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Social progress is correlated to energy use. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_energy_consumption_per_capita#/media/File:SpcialProgressIndexVsEnergInOilPerDay2.png

    ReplyDelete
  3. Electrification can end CO2 of Burning Oil, Gas, Coal -- ref https://atomicinsights.com/clean-doable-liquid-fission-lf-energy-roadmap-%e2%80%a8powering-world/

    ReplyDelete
  4. Agree in general; several caveats:

    1. Comparing past microelectroncs or telecoms deployment with future energy production increase can be very misleading. The raw material requirements are vastly different. 100x increase in the former is far easier and less costly than the latter.

    2. Current US per capita energy consumption might be something to shoot for, but one might note US Department of Energy estimates US per capita consumption itself could drop 40% by 2050 without undue personal burden. Of course, what with population increase and requisite shift from fossil fuels to cleaner and more efficient electricity might still double our national electric requirement in the process, so no free lunch.

    Overall though, yes: energy is both wealth and the means to obtain more wealth. Those who haven't sufficient energy-wealth to fulfill basic needs will increase energy consumption/wealth generation until they do meet them, then increase yet some more until those needs are met comfortably.

    India is but the tip of the iceberg: much of Asia and all of Africa are right behind you.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks, Edward, for your thoughtful comments.

      >1. Comparing past microelectroncs or telecoms deployment with future energy production increase can be very misleading.
      Yes, telecom is far easier & cheaper. This article is mainly intended to serve as a counterpoint to the current planning paradigm that looks mired in despair and incrementalism. I used the comparison hoping that it helps people to realize that 100x improvements in 20 years are possible.

      >2. Current US per capita energy consumption might be something to shoot for, but ...
      Yes, US consumption levels can fall, I could have picked Germany as a benchmark, made a bottom-up demand-stack, etc., but the thrust of the analysis would not change: there is a massive energy gap and decarbonization drives us to use wind, sun, and nuclear energy. I used the current US data as the US serves as a universal benchmark and the data integrity for past data is probably better than for a forecast.

      >Overall though, yes: energy is both wealth and the means to obtain more wealth.
      It's this driving force that's making India increase its coal production. Ref https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal_mining_in_India and "Coal India is expected to achieve its 2016/17 production target of 575 million tonnes and aims to raise output to 1 billion tonnes by 2020" ref http://www.livemint.com/Industry/uuk8pOwrAoil0OopKSrg6M/Coal-Indias-201718-production-seen-at-660-million-tonnes.html.
      India needs to change course to rapidly decarbonize energy.

      >India is but the tip of the iceberg: much of Asia and all of Africa are right behind you.
      Yes, the entire "developing world", plus the "rich world" has to de-carbonize its energy.

      Scenarios:
      1) civilization collapses
      2) de-carbonized energy occurs but results in energy poverty and permanent "belt tightening"
      3) de-carbonized energy occurs, and energy poverty is eliminated by nuclear power. In this case, who will be the Saudi Arabia of nuclear energy? It may be that the dominant providers are the one who develop the right nuclear technology.

      Delete
  5. References for Solar & Wind Potential:

    Report of the Expert Group on 175 GW RE By 2022, dated 2015
    http://niti.gov.in/writereaddata/files/writereaddata/files/document_publication/report-175-GW-RE.pdf
    Recent estimates show that India’s solar potential is greater than 750 GW and its announced wind potential is 302 GW (actual could be higher than 1000 GW).

    http://mnre.gov.in/file-manager/annual-report/2014-2015/EN/Chapter%201/chapter_1.htm
    India has an estimated renewable energy potential of about 900 GW from commercially exploitable sources viz. Wind – 100 GW (at 80 metre mast height); Small Hydro – 20 GW; Bio-energy – 25 GW; and 750 GW solar power, assuming 3% wasteland is made available.

    Current Indian Perspective for Unconventional Energy Resources and its Exploration
    Authors : Manoj K.Solanki, Pawan Mishra, Sachin Maheshwar, Dr.Tasmeem Ahmad Khan
    http://www.ijert.org/view-pdf/652/current-indian-perspective-for-unconventional-energy-resources-and-its-exploration, dated 2012
    There is a large potential for renewable energy in India, an estimated aggregate of over 150,000 MW.
    87.5% of the land is used for agriculture, forests, fallow lands, etc., 6.7% for housing, industry, etc., and 5.8% is either barren, snow bound, or generally inhabitable. Thus, only 12.5% of the land area amounting to 0.413 million km square can, in theory, be used for solar energy installations. Even if 10% of this area can be used, the available solar energy would be 8 million MW.
    According to the MNRE, the potential of wind power in India is approximately 46,092 MW.
    India is very rich in biomass energy and has a potential of 16,881MW (agro-residues and plantations), 5000MW (bagasse cogeneration) and 2700MW (energy recovery from waste), out of which only 2385 MW is installed in various form.
    India has vast small hydro power potential of 15,000 MW out of which only 18.5% hasbeen tapped so far.
    It is found that India has no geothermal power plant yet but according GSI (Geological Survey of India), geothermal resources in India are known to be able to contribute to the country’s energy supply by more than 10,600 MW of sustainable power, according to Chandrasekharam (Head of Earth Science Department, IIT Bombay).

    Renewable energy in India: Current status and future potentials
    Ashwani Kumar, Kapil Kumar, Naresh Kaushik, Satyawati Sharma, Saroj Mishra
    Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 14 (2010) 2434–2442, dated 2010
    The country has an estimated renewable energy potential of around 85,000 MW from commercially exploitable sources, i.e., wind, 45,000 MW; small hydro, 15,000 MW and biomass/bioenergy, 25,000 MW. In addition, India has the potential to generate 35 MW per square kilometer using solar photovoltaic and solar thermal energy.

    National Energy Map for India: Technology Vision 2030
    Office of the Principal Scientific Adviser (Government of India) and The Energy and Resources Institute
    http://www.teriin.org/div/psa-fullreport.pdf, dated 2006
    The potential of wind farms is estimated at 28,910 MW or 1038 TWh (terrawatt-hours)

    ReplyDelete
  6. http://www.indiaspend.com/cover-story/govts-big-solar-park-push-could-run-into-land-hurdle-53779

    ReplyDelete
  7. https://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/20/business/energy-environment/how-renewable-energy-is-blowing-climate-change-efforts-off-course.html?_r=0

    https://energyathaas.wordpress.com/2013/07/29/whats-the-point-of-an-electricity-storage-mandate/

    ReplyDelete
  8. https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2017/04/26/canada-aims-for-a-fleet-of-small-modular-nukes/#163419eb30a8

    ReplyDelete
  9. https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2017/04/26/canada-aims-for-a-fleet-of-small-modular-nukes/#163419eb30a8

    ReplyDelete
  10. http://m.economictimes.com/news/science/india-doesnt-lag-in-developing-thorium-fuelled-nuclear-reactor-mr-srinivasan-former-aec-chairman/articleshow/52489649.cms

    BARC has an Advanced Nuclear Reactor.

    The AHWR will be fuelled by a mix of uranium-233 converted from thorium, and plutonium. Uranium-233 is the reactor fuel for this third stage of the Indian nuclear power programme.

    "The Advanced Heavy Water Reactor design has been made and it will start work next year," Srinivasan said.

    ReplyDelete
  11. https://qz.com/1144207/the-worlds-astonishing-dependence-on-fossil-fuels-hasnt-changed-in-40-years/
    80 percent of the energy we consume comes from fossil fuel.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Where Does Decarbonization Come From?
    Nuclear, Hydro, and Economic Growth
    https://thebreakthrough.org/index.php/voices/where-does-decarbonization-come-from

    ReplyDelete
  13. Nuclear is the safest source of energy
    https://ourworldindata.org/what-is-the-safest-form-of-energy/

    ReplyDelete
  14. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/India%27s_three-stage_nuclear_power_programme

    Ref Indian fast breeder reactors and thorium reactors

    ReplyDelete
  15. The Kilopower project is part of NASA’s Space Technology Mission Directorate’s Game Changing Development program, which is managed by NASA’s Langley Research Center.

    The Kilopower project is a near-term technology effort to develop preliminary concepts and technologies that could be used for an affordable fission nuclear power system to enable long-duration stays on planetary surfaces.

    The principal goal of the project is to sufficiently develop and test nuclear power system technologies by 2018 so fission power can be a viable option for NASA decision makers to consider when making their informed selection of exploration surface systems.

    https://www.nasa.gov/directorates/spacetech/kilopower

    ReplyDelete
  16. In 2015, Third Way released an initial map showing the 48 advanced nuclear projects being pursued by companies, universities, and national labs across North America with the help of an astonishing $1.3 billion in private capital.

    As of January 2018, the advanced nuclear industry had climbed up to 75 projects in North America. At least five companies are already working with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to prepare for licensing, and major new milestones have been reached with regulators in both the U.S. and Canada. At this rate, we could see the first advanced reactors sending power to the grid as soon as 2026.

    At the end of 2017, Secretary Perry announced $30 million in funding to support GAIN and other advanced nuclear development activities. Congress also took note of advanced nuclear’s potential, and a number of bills to increase technical, regulatory, and financing support for advanced reactors have attracted unexpectedly strong support from both sides of the aisle. Further engagement from Washington will be vital to commercializing U.S. technologies and keeping up with competitors for the global market, particularly China and Russia.

    https://advancednuclearenergy.org/blog/keeping-up-with-the-advanced-nuclear-industry

    ReplyDelete
  17. http://environmentalprogress.org/the-complete-case-for-nuclear

    ReplyDelete
  18. https://www.cfr.org/blog/america-risks-missing-out-global-nuclear-power-revival

    ReplyDelete
  19. https://www.businessinsider.com/bill-gates-terrapower-molten-salt-nuclear-reactor-2018-10

    ReplyDelete
  20. Science Mag Editorial: http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6423/105
    A fresh look at nuclear energy
    John Parsons, Jacopo Buongiorno, Michael Corradini, David Petti
    Science 11 Jan 2019:
    Vol. 363, Issue 6423, pp. 105
    DOI: 10.1126/science.aaw5304

    It is time to take a fresh look at the role that nuclear energy can play in decarbonizing the world's energy system.

    ...extending the life of the existing fleet of nuclear reactors worldwide is the least costly approach to avoiding an increase of carbon emissions in the power sector ...

    What about the existing electricity sector in developed countries—can it become fully decarbonized? In the United States, China, and Europe, the most effective and least costly path is a combination of variable renewable energy technologies—those that fluctuate with time of day or season (such as solar or wind energy), and low-carbon dispatchable sources (whose power output to the grid can be controlled on demand). Some options, such as hydropower and geothermal energy, are geographically limited. Other options, such as battery storage, are not affordable at the scale needed to balance variable energy demand through long periods of low wind and sun or through seasonal fluctuations, although that could change in the coming decades. Nuclear energy is one low-carbon dispatchable option that is virtually unlimited and available now. Excluding nuclear power could double or triple the average cost of electricity for deep decarbonization scenarios because of the enormous overcapacity of solar energy, wind energy, and batteries that would be required to meet demand in the absence of a dispatchable low-carbon energy source.

    ReplyDelete
  21. https://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/the-pentagon-wants-a-nuclear-reactor-that-fits-in-a-tra-1832135363

    The Small Mobile Nuclear Reactor (SMNR) is to weigh less than 40 tons, transportable in a C-17 Globemaster III heavy airlifter, and deliver 1-10 megawatts of electrical power.

    The reactor should have a power generation lifespan of at least three years, be semiautonomous with a minimum of operator manning, and pose no radiation risk.

    ReplyDelete
  22. http://amp.timeinc.net/time/5547063/hans-blix-nuclear-energy-environment

    ReplyDelete
  23. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/06/opinion/sunday/climate-change-nuclear-power.html

    Nuclear Power Can Save the World

    Expanding the technology is the fastest way to slash greenhouse gas emissions and decarbonize the economy.

    By Joshua S. Goldstein, Staffan A. Qvist and Steven Pinker

    ReplyDelete
  24. https://www.wri.org/news/beyond-renewables-how-reduce-energy-related-emissions-measuring-what-matters

    ReplyDelete
  25. https://science.sciencemag.org/content/360/6396/eaas9793/tab-pdf

    Net-zero emissions energy systems
    Steven J. Davis1,2,*, Nathan S. Lewis3,*, Matthew Shaner4, Sonia Aggarwal5, Doug Arent6,7, Inês L. Azevedo8, Sally M. Benson9,10,11, Thomas Bradley12, Jack Brouwer13,14, Yet-Ming Chiang15, Christopher T. M. Clack16, Armond Cohen17, Stephen Doig18, Jae Edmonds19, Paul Fennell20,21, Christopher B. Field22, Bryan Hannegan23, Bri-Mathias Hodge6,24,25, Martin I. Hoffert26, Eric Ingersoll27, Paulina Jaramillo8, Klaus S. Lackner28, Katharine J. Mach29, Michael Mastrandrea4, Joan Ogden30, Per F. Peterson31, Daniel L. Sanchez32, Daniel Sperling33, Joseph Stagner34, Jessika E. Trancik35,36, Chi-Jen Yang37, Ken Caldeira32,*
    See all authors and affiliations

    Science 29 Jun 2018:
    Vol. 360, Issue 6396, eaas9793
    DOI: 10.1126/science.aas9793

    ReplyDelete
  26. https://www.forbes.com/sites/rogerpielke/2019/09/30/net-zero-carbon-dioxide-emissions-by-2050-requires-a-new-nuclear-power-plant-every-day

    ReplyDelete
  27. https://youtu.be/lxz5QgYvSPc on cost reduction from mass production of nuclear power plants. Also brings up ammonia and desalination.

    ReplyDelete
  28. KAPP-3 is a 700MWe PHWR reactor, nearly 100% designed and made in India, and slotted for series production. Cheapest power in India. Instead of making a dozen of these, maybe we could make hundreds.

    https://twitter.com/rahulsaxena/status/1286640457032675328

    ReplyDelete
  29. Seaborg Technologies mission is to market cheap, serially produced floating nuclear power barges.

    Seaborg envisions building its molten fluoride salt reactors in South Korean shipyards after developing the technology in Denmark in a bid to keep costs down. Completed barges will then be towed to where they’re needed. The plan is to connect the first unit to a grid by 2025.

    The first power barges will have two reactors installed, delivering 2x100MWe (or 2x250 MWth) and will need to be refueled every 12 years.

    “We will provide a significantly cheaper alternative to coal in regions with no access to renewable energy,” said Troels Schonfeldt, chief executive officer of Seaborg.

    https://www.seaborg.co/press-release-nov-2020

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-25/danish-nuclear-startup-taps-billionaire-for-first-asian-reactor

    ReplyDelete
  30. https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/the-activists-who-embrace-nuclear-power

    ReplyDelete
  31. https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2021/04/china-nuclear-energy-plan-is-70-gw-by-2025-and-180-gw-by-2035.html

    ReplyDelete
  32. https://www.hindustantimes.com/business/ril-buys-stake-in-terra-power-us/story-kh1gjtYftjpT9olfG8cf1M.html

    Reliance Industries has a minority stake in Terrapower that has a partnership with GE Hitachi Nuclear Energy that has the IFR (Integral Fast Reactor) technology now called S-PRISM that is rebranded to "Natrium". The Natrium reactor is planned to be installed in Wyoming.

    https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Wyoming-site-chosen-for-Natrium-plant?feed=feed

    ReplyDelete
  33. https://news.bloomberglaw.com/environment-and-energy/nuclear-power-is-critical-for-the-worlds-climate-crisis

    ReplyDelete
  34. https://slate.com/technology/2022/02/future-climate-nuclear-energy-opposition.html

    What I Wish Nuclear Energy Opponents Understood Will Happen if They Win
    A dispatch from a possible 2072.
    BY SEAVER WANG

    ReplyDelete
  35. https://nuclearforclimate.com.au/2021/03/21/we-must-ensure-our-electrical-grid-is-fit-for-purpose-by-james-fleay/

    The electrical grid of an advanced industrial nation needs to be as simple and robust as possible. It also needs an “anchor tenant”. Nuclear energy is the only technology that can replace coal-fired power stations and allow us to integrate more renewable energy whilst maintaining the reliability that is essential.

    ReplyDelete
  36. https://briangitt.com/chasing-utopian-energy-how-i-wasted-20-years-of-my-life/

    If we’re serious about tackling climate change, protecting the environment, and helping people climb out of energy poverty around the world, we need to stop chasing utopian energy. Instead, it’s time to be honest about all the costs and benefits of every energy source—wind, solar, natural gas, coal, oil, and nuclear.

    ReplyDelete
  37. https://www.terrapower.com/terrapower-and-pacificorp-announce-efforts-to-expand-natrium-technology-deployment/

    5 more Natrium IFRs

    ReplyDelete
  38. https://www.lynalden.com/energy-problems/

    ReplyDelete
  39. https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1879298

    On SMRs and nuclear power startups in India

    ReplyDelete
  40. https://medium.com/generation-atomic/how-much-would-a-100-nuclear-energy-system-cost-3dd7703dd5d3

    On the economics of running entire societies on nuclear energy alone, for 100% of energy supply.

    ReplyDelete
  41. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-022-00979-x

    Stylized least-cost analysis of flexible nuclear power in deeply decarbonized electricity systems considering wind and solar resources worldwide
    Lei Duan, Robert Petroski, and Ken Caldeira

    ReplyDelete
  42. https://archive.is/QwWlg#selection-2823.4-2823.58

    The wind and solar power myth has finally been exposed: The necessary miracle doesn't exist.
    BRYAN LEYLAND
    10 May 2023

    ReplyDelete
  43. UK wind is expensive.
    A tweet thread:
    https://twitter.com/LoftusSteve/status/1669760302672478233?s=19

    ReplyDelete
  44. https://www.resilience.org/stories/2006-12-02/energy-resources-and-our-future-remarks-admiral-hyman-rickover-delivered-1957/

    Admiral Rickover's lecture on energy, in 1957.

    ReplyDelete
  45. Nuclear plant construction cost analysis in the UK context. https://www.samdumitriu.com/p/infrastructure-costs-nuclear-edition?r=dy7bs&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

    ReplyDelete